Case Studies using the Archaeoclimatology MCM

For ease, the following list of published case studies is sorted by continent and then by date of the publication. The second list contains descriptions of unpublished conference posters or presentations. Please use the Table of Contents below for easier navigation. (Note that all publications refer to the 200-year model unless noted with an * .)

A wide variety of case studies from many regions of the globe are included in A Paleoclimatology Workbook, edited by Bryson and DeWall (2007a), which is available for purchase online.

Published Case Studies

Africa

• (R. A. Bryson and R. U. Bryson 1997c) MCM results are presented for sites across the continent of Africa including models for the Nile and the Sahelian Zone.  The results indicate substantial temporal and inter- and intra-regional variability with implications for a wide range of issues including regional cultural continuity, the emergence and spread of cattle pastoralism, and the depopulation of the Sahara during the glacial maximum.
• (Bryson 1992)  This paper focuses on the reconstruction of the position of the Intertropical Convergence and jet stream over North Africa for the past 40,000 years.  These values are used to estimate seasonal rainfall for the Saharan region, which correlates well with regional lakes levels and occupation indices.  (This paper relies upon an early version of the model.) 

• (Bryson 1993)  A simplified version of the MCM calculates precipitation for the African monsoon and precipitation in Portland, Oregon.  Implications for the climatic future are also discussed.
• (Hassan 1997, 2000)  River discharge output from the MCM compares favorably with variation in lake levels of Lake Qarun, Faiyum Depression, Egypt and with historical records of Nile flood height.
• (R. A. Bryson and R. U. Bryson 1997b)  MCM reconstructions are compared to field evidence for locations including the monsoon in north Africa, rain fall in Oregon, the peak Nile flood at Aswan, and precipitation at Jerusalem.  Also includes an appendix of the original volcanic data used in the first version of the Volcanic index. 
• (Bryson and Bryson 1998)  MCM reconstruction of the flow of the Nile River matches known river proxies (lake levels).  Models for the Dead Sea and the Red Sea are also presented and evaluated. 
• (R. A. Bryson and R. U. Bryson 2000a) Models for the penetration and timing of the monsoon in Africa better represents the expectations from the field data than other GCM simulations do.  The distribution of peak floods on the Nile River correlates well with the main occupations of the valley.  Models of the Asian monsoon provide information about the number of possible crops (per year) to be expected in those regions. An exceprt of these articles included in A Paleoclimatology Workbook, available online.
• (Palombini 2003)  MCM models for Sudan and Ethiopia are combined to form maps of precipitation minus evaporation for specific times in the past.  These results are compared against settlement data, highlighting the relationship between climate, agriculture, and humans in the region.

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Asia

• (Bryson 1989, 1994)  A simplified version of the MCM is used to analyze hemispheric temperatures and cultural events.  Modeled wind direction over the Arabian Sea matches pollen reconstructions for Rajasthan.
• (Bryson 1997)  Reconstructed history of the monsoon rainfall in Rajasthan indicates that the monsoon was weak or absent in late glacial time.  During the Holocene, fresh water lakes preserved pollen records that have been used to reconstruct the history of the monsoon, and these records compare favorably to the MCM results.
• (Ruter and Bryson 2003b) An investigation of the spatial and temporal variability of climate change during the Holocene in Pakistan and Rajasthan demonstrated that the development and collapse of the Indus culture may have resulted from an adaptive response to changing precipitation regimes.
• (Bryson and Ruter 2003)  This brief paper compares MCM results for several sites in India to highlight the variation between sites in the past.
• (Bryson 2007b)  The timing of the incursions of the 'horse nomads' of Asia into Eastern Europe is compared to MCM climatic evidence for the Asian steppe. Article included in A Paleoclimatology Workbook, available online.
• (Bryson 2007c)  MCM output for the watershed regions of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers suggests a correlation between mid-Holocene floods and increased westerly storms in the region. Article included in A Paleoclimatology Workbook, available online.

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Central America

• (Callaghan 2003)  MCM output of storm frequencies for multiple locations in the Caribbean was used in computer simulations of possible migration routes of humans to the Greater Antilles, suggesting that voyages northward from South America were more likely to be successful.
• (Ruter, et al. 2004)  MCM output for tropical and Central America is compared to several other GCM reconstructions for the region.  The MCM had comparable, if not more successful, results for all regions and time periods.

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Europe

• (Bryson and Bryson 1999)  Precipitation, evaporation, and temperature models for Turkey are compared to known archaeological and historical sequences and sites.  Precipitation models reveal the prolonged drought of Egyptian and Hittite records at the end of the thirteenth century BC.  Other important climatic and historic events are analyzed including the Indus and Vandal Events and the collapse of the Roman Empire.  A regional analysis of Turkey, using more than sixty modeled stations, highlights the non-uniform changes during these events. 
• (Bryson 2004b)  Poetic evidence for drought in fourth century Spain is consistent with MCM results for the region. Article included in A Paleoclimatology Workbook, available online.
• (DeWall 2007)  MCM output is applied to address several archaeological questions raised by the Lake Dwelling sites of Western and Central Europe during the Neolithic and Bronze Age periods. Article included in A Paleoclimatology Workbook, available online.

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North America

• Alaska and Canada
• * (Bryson and DeWall 2007a, b) 100-year models for Siberia, Alaska, and Canada suggest that the coastal route was much more attractive than the interior ‘ice-free corridor’ as a means of migration into the Americas from Asia.

• High Plains of the United States
• (R. U. Bryson and R. A. Bryson 1995)  MCM results for Lake Ilo, North Dakota were submitted to the Knife River Flint Quarries Archaeological Project.
• (R. U. Bryson and R. A. Bryson 1997b)  An overview of the climatic history of Yellowstone National Park, based on the MCM.
• (R. U. Bryson and R. A. Bryson 2000c)  An overview of the climatic history of Green River, Wyoming for an analysis of human-river interactions and adaptations through time.
• (Byers, et al. 2005)  An aridity index was derived from the Green River, Wyoming MCM, which correlates well with regional paleoenvironmental proxy.  This index was used to assess the response of artiodactyl populations to these variations in moisture during the Holocene.

• Midwestern United States
• (Bryson 1995)  MCM models of temperature and precipitation for Wausau and Madison, Wisconsin are presented.
• (R. A. Bryson and R. U. Bryson 1997a)  MCM results for several sites across Iowa are combined to track the movement of environmental ecotones across the state during the Holocene.  These findings compare favorably to proxy records from nearby locales. 
• (Bryson 2007d)  The location of the Prairie Peninsula across the Midwest is found to vary based on the local of mean atmospheric frontal positions, which can be successfully modeled for the past using the MCM. Article included in A Paleoclimatology Workbook, available online.

• Northwestern United States
• (Bryson and Bryson 1994; R. U. Bryson and R. A. Bryson 1997a)  This article provides a detailed overview of the model methodology before presenting four different case study applications of MCM output to pollen analyses and reconstructions in the state of Oregon. 
• (Ruter and Bryson 2004; Stenger and Bryson 2003, 2004)  These articles present a series of comparisons of modeled results and proxy reconstructions for various sites across Oregon.

• Southwestern United States
• (R. U. Bryson and R. A. Bryson 2000b)  This report compared the MCM results for Sand Hollow, Utah with local proxy reconstructions.
• (Bryson 2003b)  The climate of the Lindenmeier site compares favorably with the timing of the archaeological stages. 

• Western United States
• (Bryson, Bryson, et al. 1996; Ramirez and Bryson 1996)  The climate and the environment of Edwards Air Force Base, California is reconstructed using the MCM.
• (Bryson, Ramirez de Bryson, et al. 1996)  An overview of the climatic history of Yosemite National Park, based on the MCM.
• (Bryson, et al. 1997)  MCM results provide a regional overview of climate change in the Great Basin of California and Nevada.
• (Bochenski and Campbell Jr. 2006)  MCM output for Los Angeles informs an analysis of extinct turkey bones from the area.

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South America

• (Ramirez de Bryson, et al. 2001)  MCM results suggest that hyperarid conditions persisted in the Arica region of Chile for at least the past 10,000 years.  Discharge models for the headwaters near the Azapa Valley suggest changing water availability that would have impacted human populations in the region, and new insights are provided into the Formative Period.
• (Bryson and Bryson 2005)  MCM results were applied to the question of the timing of irrigation and agriculture in the Atacama Desert of Chile.

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Global

• (Binford 2001:447ff)  MCM output – precipitation, evaporation, and runoff – is utilized to provide information about climatic variables in the past for various formulations of hypotheses regarding hunter-gatherers.
• (Bay, et al. 2004)  The volcanicity index from the MCM is compared against other proxies for global volcanism including the GISP2 volcanic sulfate record and the Siple Done ash record.  All three curves show general agreement for the major patterns of volcanic activity over the past 40,000 years.  Volcanic activity is seen as a critical factor in past climatic change.
• (Surovell and Brantingham 2007)  This analysis of temporal frequency distributions highlights the volcanic index component of the MCM as an appropriate statistical approach to take with taphonomically-derived data sets.
• (Bryson 2007a)  The timing of the start of the Maya calendar matches a dramatic event in the updated volcanicity index. Article included in A Paleoclimatology Workbook, available online.
• (Bryson 2007e)  The updated volcanicity index is compared favorably to other proxies of global change, including the timing of Heinrich Events and the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles. Article included in A Paleoclimatology Workbook, available online.

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Conference Presentations or Posters

Africa

• (Sinclair, et al. 2003) MCM results for models across southern Africa were compared to build a regional picture of climate change, particularly over the past 2000 years.
• (Anderson, et al. 2007)  Modern ethnographic work in Tunisia is used to understand past agricultural practices and their relationship to climate as modeled by the MCM.

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Asia

• (Arzt 2003, 2005)  These analyses applied MCM results to an understanding of climatic change in Mesopotamia and settlement patterns in Syria.
• (Barton, et al. 2006)  MCM results are one component of a dynamic landscape model seeking to explore the origins of agriculture and intensification in Jordan and Spain.  A collaboration with the Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics project at Arizona State University: http://www.asu.edu/clas/shesc/projects/medland/.
• (Schuldenrein, et al. 2007)  MCM results are compared to reconstructed landscapes for the Indus Culture Area that encompasses buried soils, river histories, and cultural deposits.  A critical change of climate occurred, simultaneous to the emergence of the Harappan culture (5500 BP), to more uniform, less seasonal precipitation that invariably affected Harappan settlement geography.
• (Bryson, et al. 2007)  MCM stream discharge output is explained in reference to the regional climatology, particularly the reconstructed location of the Intertropical Convergence (and thus the monsoon rains) as related to the Himalayas.  These results suggest that the Indus culture developed during a period of stable but modest river flow that dropped dramatically near the collapse of the Indus culture. Article version included in A Paleoclimatology Workbook, available online.

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Europe

• (Bryson, et al. 2003; Ruter and Bryson 2006)  River models for Europe and the Danube compare favorably with proxy records and field evidence.
• (Jeraj and Bryson 2003)  MCM results for Ljubjana Moor, Slovenia are well correlated with the pollen evidence. Article included in A Paleoclimatology Workbook, available online.
• (Ruter 2005)  MCM models for the Eastern Mediterranean and Pontic Basin reveal significant differences in the timing and magnitude of major climatic changes in the region.

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North America

• High Plains of the United States
• (R. A. Bryson and R. U. Bryson 1995) An overview of MCM results for the High Plains region, given in honor of George Frison. Article version is included in A Paleoclimatology Workbook, available online.
• Midwestern United States
• (Bryson and Hopkins 2001) MCM results for Wisconsin indicate that Glacial Lake Wisconsin served as a possible refuge area for lake trout during the last ice age. Article included in A Paleoclimatology Workbook, available online.
• (R. A. Bryson and R. U. Bryson 2000b; Ruter and Bryson 2003a)  MCM results for the Woodland Period in the Ohio Valley suggest that changing precipitation and climate regimes may have contributed to the end of the Hopewell and pushed the Late Woodland adoption of agriculture.
• (Kaplan, et al. 2005)  The MCM results stand up against rigorous testing and comparison with various pollen and other proxy records for the upper Midwest.
• (McEnaney, et al. 2006)  This poster presented several case study applications of MCM results for river discharge models along the Mississippi River and their implications for cultures in the Upper Midwest, Ohio River Valley, and Lower Mississippi.
• Northwestern United States
• (Bryson and Stenger 2004)  MCM results for Oregon underscore the impact of tropical storms that recurve and enter the northwestern US, causing high intensity storms or ‘gully-washers’.  These floods in the past may have impacted settlement and site-survival in the region.
• (Bryson 2004)  This paper presented an overview of the MCM methodology and its applications for the Pacific Northwest.
• Southern United States
• (Cummings and Bryson 2006)  River discharge, temperature, and precipitation models using the MCM suggest that changing flood regimes may have led to the demise of the Poverty Point Archaic culture.
• Southwestern United States
• (Cummings and Bryson 2003)  MCM results aid the interpretation of a pollen construction for a site in Colorado.
• (Bryson 2005)  Poster of river discharge for locations across the Rocky Mountain range, including an in-depth seasonal analysis of Dinwoody Creek.
• (Bryson and Stenger 2005)  An overview of the synoptic climatology of the Cordillera mountain ranges and their impact on climatology, as described using MCM results.
• (Cummings, et al. 2006)  Work in western Colorado confirms that MCM results match interpretations based on proxy pollen evidence.
• Western United States
• (Cummings 2004)  A case study comparison between the MCM and pollen records in Hawaii indicates strong correspondence. 
• (Varney, et al. 2007)  Animated maps of precipitation, temperature, and precipitation minus evapotranspiration were created in 200-year intervals from MCM output for all sites in Colorado.  These maps were combined with known site distributions for the past 14,000 radiocarbon years to make inferences about past human-climate relationships in the state.

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Global

• (R. U. Bryson and R. A. Bryson 2000a) The MCM is applied to modeling paleoclimatic hazards such as hurricanes and tropical storms, tornadoes, and fire potential.
• (Bryson 2003a)  MCM output along the PEP III transect of the globe demonstrate the local and regional variability of climate variables in the past.
• (McEnaney 2005; McEnaney and Bryson 2005)  These overviews of MCM methodology, output, and uses focused on regional and site-level applications and case studies.
• (Bryson, et al. 2006)  An oveview of MCM results for river discharge for major rivers on all occupied continents, including the close correlation of the modeled discharge of the Nile River and reconstructed lake levels.
• (Gear, et al. 2007)  MCM output is used as a framework for examining past climate and its influences on people’s choices concerning agriculture.  The prehistoric record is examined and compared to model output to address issues of climate and sustainability and to recommend sustainable strategies for modern agriculture.

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Please see the publications link for complete bibliographic information.