The New, Updated, 100-Year Resolution Model
Work is finished on the newly updated 100-year resolution model. An upgraded and calibrated volcanic index has been added, allowing for 100-year output on the calendar scale of years (vs. uncalibrated radiocarbon "years" in the old model) for the past 40,000 years. All new research is being conducted with the updated model.
The Archaeoclimatology Macrophysical Climate Model (MCM) has several advantages over traditional climate models.
- High resolution (100-year averages by month)
- Economical (does not require expensive mainframe computers)
- Implicitly includes the impacts of topography
- Provides robust, testable working hypotheses
- Successfully tested against field data
- Wide variety of output: precipitation, temperature, water balance, snowfall, storm intensity, river discharge, wind direction ...
Model Case Studies
A variety of analyses and specific case studies have been published for regions around the world, although the majority of the models in the published literature are the older, 200-year resolution version. We have reproduced a few of these case studies here on the web site and have compiled references and descriptions of the rest.
Here we present some new research using the updated 100-year model:
The Northwest Entrada
We are using the Archaeoclimatology MCM to compare the ice-free corridor vs. the coast as migration routes for the first humans into the Americas. Preliminary model evidence indicates that coastal sites had much more favorable climate than those further inland, particularly during the most likely timeframe for the first migrations.
The above figure shows the modeled July Temperature values for more than sites in the Beringia-Coast-Corridor region at 16,200 calendar years (ca. 13,500 rcybp). The exposed "land bridge" area in the Bering Strait is shown in green. Note that much of Alaska, Siberia, and "land bridge" area are at or below freezing, even in July. Approximate glacial boundaries are shown in white. The "ice-free corridor" is not yet open, but the coastal regions would have been ice free and warmer than the interior. Additional work is underway to better quantify and describe the environments of the two sub-regions. Preliminary results, in movie format, can be viewed here.
Tin City is located on the western tip of Alaska, closest to Russia (and is the eastern of the 2 dark blue circles in the middle of the Bering Strait, on the map above). Below are the modeled precipitation and temperature for Tin City, as an example of the precision of the 100-year model.